| Math
and journalists
A conversation with math wizard Robert Niles
Robert Niles is creator of the award-winning Web site Statistics
Every Writer Should Know. A senior producer at latimes.com,
he has a master's degree in journalism from Indiana University
and a bachelor's degree from Northwestern University's Honors
Program in Mathematical Methods in Social Sciences.
He talked with chipsquinn.org about how journalists can make
numbers work for them.
chipsquinn.org: What are the most common math/number
mistakes journalists make?
Robert Niles: There are two: not checking
to see that numbers add up -- 50% in a survey think that,
40% think something else and 15% think something else still;
whoops! -- and not changing real numbers to rates.
Q: Why do journalists seem to have such problems
with numbers?
A: Many journalists got into the field because
they wanted to be writers and saw this as their best chance
to get paid for doing just that. They had no desire to do
research or reporting. And too many newspapers base hiring
decisions on an applicant's writing, with little attention
to research and analysis skills. Once these math-phobic reporters
move into management, the cycle sustains itself.
Q: What three pieces of advice about math and numbers
would you give to journalists?
A: One: Take calculus and basic probability
(and pass them) before you get out of school. If you can't
hack basic calc, you don't deserve to be a professional reporter
these days. It's really not that hard, if you are willing
to put the time and effort into it.
Two: Always check the addition in any story involving numbers.
(An employee of mine once got a great story when he used a
spreadsheet program to check the math in the city's budget
proposal. The city's numbers didn't add up, but no one on
the city council had bothered to check. Whoops again.)
Three: Find a good statistician in your local community,
and put him or her on your list of sources to call on a regular
basis. Run your stories by him or her when you have any doubts
about numbers or research.
Q: Can you think of an example of a numbers-numb
journalist actually doing harm in a news story?
A: Just about any environmental story. Remember
all those stories about power lines causing cancer and the
near-hysteria those stories created in some communities? Turns
out that the researcher who started all the fuss faked his
data. A few good reporters questioned the numbers all along,
but far many more swallowed the suspicious numbers without
question and never mentioned that a great many scientists
thought this was bunk. People were needlessly frightened and
some homeowners were out a great deal of money as a result.
Q: Is it better to leave the numbers out than to
make them fuzzy or incomprehensible?
A: No. It is a journalist's job to find
the truth, not just pass along what people tell you. Find
a good statistician in your area and ask for help.
Q: What is your favorite journalist-does-math story?
A: My favorite is an example on my Web site.
It comes from a reporter in Illinois who, when asked to do
a story on the number of car wrecks in a snowstorm, thought
to also ask the state patrol how many wrecks occur on average
on a clear, Summer day. Turns out that there were more on
the Summer days. A simple, but nice, creative turn on a routine
story.
Contact Robert Niles through his Web site, Statistics
Every Writer Should Know
About the column
Watch, listen, learn. One of the best ways to improve your
skills is to mimic those who excel. Talented journalists share
how they do their jobs so you can "learn from the best."
Do you know someone we should feature? Send your suggestion
to CQ content editor Mary
Ann Hogan.
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